REGISTER
LOGIN
Weekly Outlook | NFP data and BoE should offer clarity
Updated Updated Tue, 2025 February 4 05:58
Important events this week:
This week will be influenced by the interest rate decision from the UK and the usual Nonfarm payrolls report from the US. In general, markets show high vulnerability of potential changes in the policy from the US. The risk sentiment has been fading slightly as stock markets face some profit taking. The Chinese AI startup DeepSeek might shake up markets. US investor Ray Dalio warned that the recent run in particular towards AI related stocks can be compared to the bubble in the dot-com sector, which burst in 2000.
– ADP employment change – The important employment data is expected to come in with 149,000 newly created jobs. In light of the recent fires in California the situation might offer a deviation of the expected figures and could be offset by the general social, environmental as well as financial costs of the disaster.
Yet, in general the S&P 500 shows potential further upside momentum as the price might clear the technical resistance zone at 6,100. This could enable the market to rise towards the 6,400 price level. On the other hand, also interest rates should be factored in, here. Strong economic data might cause the Fed to remain hawkish, without lowering rates anytime soon, which is currently anticipated. The index will be published on Wednesday, February 05 at 14:15 CET.
– UK- BoE interest rate decision– Another important interest rate decision will follow from the Bank of England this week. It is expected that the BoE will cut rates by 25 basis points, which is likely going to move the Pound.
The weekly chart of the GBPUSD currency pair shows, that a breakout might happen soon. Should the market be able to clear the technical resistance of 1.2500 further upside momentum might occur. Vice- versa, a break of the area of 1.2330, which had offered strong support several times as the chart shows, might cause the GBP to weaken further. The interest rate decision will be held on Thursday, February 06 at 13:00 CET.
– US (Nonfarm Payrolls) labor market report – Alongside the jobs report from Canada, which is due at the same time, the NFP data is expected to come in at 154,000 newly created jobs. The Dollar had resumed fresh momentum last week and might continue with further upside momentum.
The EURUSD currency pair above shows, that the important 50- moving average, based on the daily chart has not been broken. Instead, the downside momentum might intensify again, in particular if the data would come out stronger than expected. The figure will be released on Friday February 07 at 14:30 CET.
